Supplementary Materials for Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

The extinction of species carry several risks to society [1]. Biological diversity provides numerous services to humans [1], most of these non-tangible and hard to quantify [1]. Conservationists, thus seek to minimize extinction risks because biological diversity provides ecosystem resilience [2], and human quality of livelihoods associate with system resilience [3]. The material value basis of most socio-economic-ecological systems [4], however, reduces conservation outcomes to a basic price judgment. If a species pays, it stays [5]. Wildlife trafficking of charismatic mammal products, fueled by Asian demand, poses significant threats to biodiversity persistence. International trade bans may result in poachingfed illegal supply chains because high demand and low supply stimulate high commodity prices attractive to organized crime [6]. Some conservationists argue that the reliance of a species’ persistence on its economic value is the basis of its recovery from near extinction (e.g. the Vicuña [7]). Reducing the demand for rhino horn [8], protecting rhinos better [9] and providing horn to consumers [10] offer strategic options to combat rhino poaching. Promoters of introducing trade in rhino horn [6], [11] relies strongly on the dependence of a species’ existence relating to its economic value. The focal mechanism, however, is a form of central selling organization [6]. This is effectively a legal monopoly replacing or competing with an illegal one. Cost-benefit analyses illustrate strategies that stockpile horn, provides best financial return when the species go extinct [12], [10], [13]. Proponents of trade bans recognize non-tangible commodity values [14] and advocate demand reduction [15] along with intensified anti-poaching tactics [9]. Trade-banners accidentally and unknowingly trade in extinction anxiety, the key source of non-government organization (NGO) funding. Costbenefit analyses predict that unintended extinction anxiety trade provides best financial return when a species remains highly endangered. The bankers (legal and illegal stockpile traders) and betters (inadvertent extinction anxiety traders) thus challenge the reliance of a species’ persistence on its economic value. When will rhinos be extinct? It is not a trivial question. For conservationists, extinction is complete failure. For Asian users, extinction collapses a medicinal tradition. For betters,